Punctuated Equilibria in Artificial Intelligence: The Institutional Scaling Law and the Speciation of Sovereign AI
The dominant narrative of artificial intelligence development assumes that progress is continuous and that capability scales monotonically with model size. We challenge both assumptions. Drawing on punctuated equilibrium theory from evolutionary biology, we show that AI development proceeds not through smooth advancement but through extended periods of stasis interrupted by rapid phase transitions that reorganize the competitive landscape. We identify five such eras since 1943 and four epochs wi
Record details
Published: 15 March 2026
Source: arXiv
Category: Research
Topics: Regulation · Biotech
Retrieved: 14 July 2026
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ethics.ai (15 March 2026), “Punctuated Equilibria in Artificial Intelligence: The Institutional Scaling Law and the Speciation of Sovereign AI,” evidence record 7201, https://ethics.ai/record/7201 (originally published by arXiv).
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